哈佛大学研究小组预测可能需要保持社交距离到2022年

小白老师说：CNN官网于当地时间4月14日发表了题为US May Have to Endure Social Distancing Until 2022 if No Vaccine is Quickly Found, Scientists Predict的文章，提出如果不能迅速获取疫苗，美国可能必须忍受保持社交距离直到2022年。▼

This may be the new normal for quite a while.

这可能成为相当长时间内的新常态。

The US may have to endure social distancing measures — such as stay-at-home orders and school closures — until 2022, researchers projected on Tuesday. That is, unless, a vaccine becomes quickly available.

研究人员在周二预测，美国可能不得不忍受社会疏远措施，例如居家令、学校停课，直到2022年，除非能迅速获得疫苗。

That’s according to researchers from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, who published their findings in the journal Science on Tuesday. Those findings directly contradict research being touted by the White House that suggests the pandemic may stop this summer.

哈佛大学陈河公共卫生学院的研究人员称，该研究结果于周二在《科学》杂志上发表。这些发现与白宫宣扬的“大流行可能在今年夏天停止”的研究结果相悖。

The team at the Harvard School of Public Health used what’s known about COVID-19 and other coronaviruses to create possible scenarios of the current pandemic.

哈佛大学公共卫生学院的研究小组利用有关COVID-19和其它冠状病毒的已知信息，创建了当前大流行可能的情景。

“Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available,” they wrote in their report. “Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.”

他们在报告中写道：“除非重症监护能力显著提高，或有治疗方法，或有疫苗可用，否则一直到2022年都可能需要间歇性的隔离。” “即使在疫情明显消除的情况下，也应该保持对SARS-CoV-2的监测，因为该传染病可能在2024年再次爆发。”

The Harvard team’s projections also indicate that the virus would come roaring back fairly quickly once restrictions were lifted.

哈佛团队还预测，一旦限制解除，病毒将很快卷土重来。

“If intermittent distancing is the approach that’s chosen, it may be necessary to do it for several years, which is obviously a very long time,” Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an author on the study and an epidemiology professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, told reporters.

这项研究的作者，哈佛大学公共学院的流行病学教授马克·利普西奇（Marc Lipsitch）博士告诉记者说：“如果选择间歇性保持社交距离，那么这一举措可能需要持续好几年，这显然是一段很长的时间。”

Another important factor: Whether people become immune to the new coronavirus after they have been infected. That’s not yet known.

另一个重要因素：人们在感染新冠状病毒后是否会产生免疫。尚未可知。

Potential challenges include finding a reliable test to determine who has antibodies for the coronavirus, establishing the level of immunity conferred by previous infection and how long it lasts, and the capacity of overstretched health systems to carry out reliable, widespread antibody tests in the general population.

潜在的挑战包括寻找一种可靠的测试方法来确定谁拥有冠状病毒抗体，确定以前感染所产生的免疫力水平和持续时间，以及过度紧张的卫生系统在普通人群中开展可靠的广泛抗体测试的能力。

There’s also the difficult social questions around immunity certificates, which have been floated as a possibility in the UK. Would they create a kind of two-tier society, where those who have them can return to a more normal life, while others remain locked down?

关于免疫证明也存在一些棘手的社会问题，在英国已经作为一种可能性被提出。他们会建立一个双层的社会，让拥有免疫证明的人恢复正常生活，而其他人则被禁锢吗？

The study researchers say they are aware that such prolonged distancing, even if intermittent, would likely have “profoundly negative economic, social, and educational consequences.”

这项研究的研究人员表示，他们意识到，长时间保持距离，即使是间歇性的，也可能会“对经济、社会和教育产生重大的负面影响”。

They hope their research will help identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches, identify complementary ways to fight it, and to spur further thinking about ways to get the pandemic under control.

他们希望，他们的研究能有助于用其他方法来识别流行病的可能发展轨迹，找到与之相辅相成的对抗方法，并促使人们进一步思考如何控制该流行病。

Though coronavirus cases in the US have been soaring, social distancing appears to be effective.

尽管在美国冠状病毒病例激增，但保持社交距离似乎是有效的。

Social distancing is “one of the most powerful weapons” against COVID-19, said Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

疾病控制与预防中心主任罗伯特·雷德菲尔德表示，保持社交距离是对抗COVID-19“最有力武器之一”。

“If we can just maximize that social distancing, we can limit this virus’s ability,” he said earlier this month.

“如果我们能最大限度地保持社会距离，我们就能限制这种病毒的能力，”他本月早些时候说。

States across the country have issued stay-at-home orders, allowing only for essential errands or tasks.

美国各州都发布了居家禁令，只允许从事基本的生活事务和工作事宜。

Penalties for breaking the order vary by state. In Maine, the penalty for breaking the order can be up to six months in jail and up to a $1,000 fine.

各州对违反禁令的处罚各不相同。在缅因州，违反禁令的最高刑罚是6个月监禁和1000美元罚款。

In Florida, a pastor was arrested last month for continuing to hold large services and is charged with unlawful assembly and violation of public health emergency rules, both second-degree misdemeanors.

在佛罗里达州，一名牧师上个月因继续举行大型宗教活动而被捕，他被控非法集会和违反公共卫生紧急规则，这两项罪名都属于二级轻罪。

This week, states on the East and West coasts announced they are forming their own regional pacts to work together on how to reopen after the stay-at-home orders.

本周，美国东西海岸各州宣布，他们正在形成区域公约，共同商讨如何在居家禁令之后重新开放。

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island and Massachusetts each plan to name a public health and economic official to a regional working group.

纽约州、新泽西州、康涅狄格州、宾夕法尼亚州、特拉华州、罗德岛州和马萨诸塞州均计划任命一名公共卫生和经济官员加入区域工作组。

West Coast states of California, Washington and Oregon also announced they are joining forces in a plan to begin incremental release of stay-at-home orders.

西海岸的加利福尼亚州、华盛顿州和俄勒冈州也宣布将联合起来计划开始逐步取消居家禁令。